There are two programs right now trying to bring back the first rock samples from the surface of Mars: one by NASA and ESA, the other by China’s CNSA. The agencies aren’t saying it’s a race, but it’s a race.1 And China is going to win.
Let’s compare these two robotic missions. China has a mission architecture, a launch date in 2028, and a track record of not announcing deadlines that aren’t at least vaguely realistic. Meanwhile NASA has a rover (Perseverance) already collecting samples on Mars, and ESA is building a craft to ferry them from Mars orbit back to Earth.
Oh, and how are we going to get the rocks off the planet and to their waiting ride? Well, NASA had a design that it canceled for being too costly, and has yet to make a final decision on an alternative.2 And of course, the Trump administration wants to cut the funding for the entire thing.3
China’s plan is to land somewhere flat, scoop up a sample from the surface, and fly it straight back to Earth. NASA, by contrast, has been using Perseverance to gather samples from all around Jezero Crater, a scientifically interesting site with challenging terrain. These samples will be much more scientifically valuable – if they ever get back to Earth.
Plenty of comparisons exist between the current state of space and the original Space Race. I don’t know if America’s leaders will let Mars rocks jolt them awake the way Sputnik did, but if they follow the Space Race playbook the US could still try and beat China to landing humans on Mars. But instead of rehashing that argument, I want to make a comparison to another time when a narrow-scoped, glory focused expedition raced against a broader, scientific one.
In June 1910, two voyages set off for the South Pole: a Norwegian expedition led by Roald Amundsen, and a British expedition under Robert Falcon Scott. Scott was leading a scientific expedition, planned and publicized well in advance. Reaching the pole was to be its crowning achievement.
Amundsen, on the other hand, originally planned to attempt the North Pole. But while the expedition was being planned, both Frederick Cook and Robert Peary claimed they’d reached the North Pole first.4 So Amundsen changed destination before his departure without telling his investors – or his crew – before they set sail. Both expeditions reached the Antarctic in early 1911, and had to wait until the next Austral summer to begin their main journey to the pole. Amundsen set off October 20th, Scott on November 1st.
Amundsen’s ship, “Fram”
Amundsen was efficient, well organized, and single-minded. He recognized in advance that feeding his sled dogs would be paramount, and planned to sacrifice the weakest dogs for meat to keep the other dogs running on the final dash. In Amundsen’s mind, this was a cruel necessity, but at least kinder than working the dogs to death by starvation.5 Amundsen traveled on lightweight skis, placed many small supply depots along his route, and reached the pole with four of his crew on December 14th. They returned the same way they came, and got back to their ship on January 25th. The pole party’s round trip was 99 days.
Scott’s ship “Terra Nova”
Scott and the rest of his 5-man pole party made it to the South Pole 34 days after Amundsen, and died on the way back just 11 miles from their forward supply depot. Historians are divided on exactly what caused Scott’s failure. Unusually extreme weather may have played a role, as did tensions among the crew. It is certainly true, though, that Scott had more time to plan and perhaps twice the funding, but Amundsen was better prepared to dash to the pole.
Instead of relying solely on sled dogs like Amundsen, Scott brought dogs, ponies and motorized sledges, and also had his crew haul supplies themselves. The sledges broke down soon after reaching Antarctica. The ponies fared poorly, and were eventually shot and eaten. On the push to the pole, Scott’s sled dogs often had to wait hours for the man-hauled sledges. When the weather turned against them on the journey back north, there was nothing left to be done.
In retrospect, it seems that Scott gravely miscalculated how much supplies to bring, particularly extra food for the men and the dogs when hauling sledges.6 Scott’s cooking fuel even evaporated out of its containers, forcing his polar party to to eat frozen rations which further sapped their strength.7 (Amundsen had soldered his fuel containers shut.) Britain still held Scott and his companions as heroes in their death, but heroism is not a substitute for food.
NASA and ESA’s Mars Sample Return may someday give better scientific results than China’s. But China doesn’t care – they’re going to get the headline, and they’re going to win in the public eye. It might be nice if the world cared more about science than about firsts, but that’s not the world we live in. But the race to the pole reminds us that it could be worse. NASA’s hardest lessons have come at the cost of astronauts’ lives – Apollo 1, Challenger, and Columbia. Maybe this time, it can learn one while only prestige is on the line.
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